Stock Market collapse – is it time to jump?
Today is Friday 12th October 2018 and we are giving our view as to what is likely to happen after this week’s stock market turmoil and rise in gold and silver prices and is it time to jump stocks and start to rapidly accumulate gold and silver?
Well first of all let’s review what has actually happened so far this week.
Gold began the week at 02 and almost immediately fell to 83 by Tuesday. (This is UK time). We saw a small blip up to 94 on Wednesday and then Thursday we witnessed a substantial leap to ,225. Similarly silver started the week at .63, fell to .26 and then on Thursday spiked to .72.
So why did this happen. Well of course it hasn’t gone amiss that we have encountered 2 major days of Stock market sell offs. For the past couple of weeks in particular, we have warned subscribers to just be aware of what has been happening in emerging markets and China in particular.
Now let’s put something to bed here first. Problems with emerging markets have been with us for many years. A simple google search will show you (page 2 and 3) that concerns about these were regularly voiced as early as 2001 and again in 2005. So when you hear people say we knew it was going to happen and claim to be some forecasting guru – to be frank, you could have said this at any time during the past 18 years or more.
Our attention became further heightened when the FED actually began to raise interest rates and later when President Trump began to mute, and then adopt, his international trade policy of tariffs and sanctions. All of which would land these economies in a worse situation and run the risk of debt default and collapse of their currencies, due to rapidly rising inflation and loss of confidence.
Well the Dow fell 545 points yesterday and after a fall on Wednesday of over 800 points. The Nasdaq closed yesterday at 7329 down 460 points since Fridays close. Oil stocks both Brent and WTI are down 4 and 3 dollars also since Friday though they have recovered slightly from their lows.
So the key question we all have to ask ourselves is whether this is just a temporary correction or does this mark a change of direction and are we going to see that stock market collapse the pumpers and doom merchants have been quoting all along?
Well our view is really quite a simple one. Stock markets were most certainly getting ahead of themselves and frankly a correction was necessary otherwise a more substantial bubble burst could in fact occur.
The fear has been the FED’s determination to follow a very hawkish monetary tightening situation and promising to become even tighter.
Now we are producing this video prior to the Wall St opening and without the benefit of seeing this week’s COT report – which we shall update you on during our weekly round up tomorrow. But it is our belief that that markets will regain some composure and both gold and silver prices will reign back a little.
Having said that there are some aspects operating in their favour. CPI figures came in yesterday at 0.1% for September compared with 0.2% forecast. Therefore it appears that inflation is not a problem for the moment. This could influence the FED to be a little less aggressive with interest rates and we should see this reflect in a slight stock market recovery.
So our over all contention is that, no we are not at the edge of the precipice and there is no need to jump. However, we do have some uncertainty ahead and with the US citizens about to go to the polls in a few week’s time, there will still be further uncertainty and market turmoil.
We shall be much more confident once we have taken a look at the COT report and next weeks will be even more revealing thereby telling us exactly what the speculators are up to. So for now our best estimation is that silver may indeed hover between .25 – .80 for a few more days and gold around the 10 – 25 until the markets have digested the news and decided upon a sustainable direction.
We shall update you further tomorrow in our weekly round up when we will have received the benefits of additional data plus Central Bank Governors comments plus the consumer confidence index reports – all of which will add to the overall picture.
Please view our recent videos:
China Economic Collapse – Is The Writing on the Wall
China Economic Collapse 2018 – Is it Likely?
Gold and Silver weekly Update – w/e 5th October 2018
QE – The End of the Big Easy – Did it work?
China – Bond Collapse and Tariffs – Influence on gold and silver prices
Stock Market collapse – is it time to jump